Shifts in winter temperature and precipitation patterns can profoundly affect snow accumulation and melt regimes. These shifts have varying impacts on local to large-scale hydro-ecological systems and freshwater distribution, especially in cold regions with high hydroclimatic heterogeneity. We evaluate projected winter climate changes in the six ecozones (Mountains, Foothills, Prairie, Parkland, Boreal, and Taiga) in Alberta, Canada, and identify regions of elevated susceptibility to change. Evaluation of future changes in winter climate use high-resolution (~10km) downscaled projections for the 2050s (2041-2070) and 2080s (2071-2100) under medium (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Results indicate declines in winter duration and earlier onset of spring above-freezing temperatures, with greater changes in Prairie and Mountain ecozones. Future scenarios suggest winter precipitation increases are expected to predominantly fall as rain, and shifts in precipitation distributions lead to historically-rare high-precipitation extreme events becoming more common. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on winter snowpack-related climate and can be used inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

The Natural Resources & Environmental Studies Institute (NRESi) at UNBC hosts a weekly lecture series at the Prince George campus. Anyone from the university or wider community with interest in the topic area is welcome to attend. Go to http://www.unbc.ca/nres-institute/colloquium-webcasts to view the presentation remotely.

Past NRESi colloquium presentations and special lectures can be viewed on our video archive, available here.